What should happen with Brexit?

Put the world to rights here (off-topic discussion)

What should happen now regarding the UK's membership of the EU?

Remain in the EU after all
16
64%
Ask the EU to renegotiate
2
8%
Leave with Theresa May's deal
2
8%
Leave with no deal
5
20%
 
Total votes: 25

jwh20
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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby jwh20 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:24 pm

I still need to read through the deal agreed by May, just not had the chance.

I voted remain, but am conscious of the reasons people want to leave.

People can say "I know what I voted for" as much as they like, but no one could predict the deal May could bring, so that's a load of crud. It should have been more clearly defined BEFORE the vote, but what's done is done.

48/52 is reasonably close. Out but with close ties seems the best option - unfortunately it is not going to satisfy anyone at all. Again not read it through, but that seems to be what has been agreed from the news.

I don't particularly think another referendum is undemocratic, given that we now have reality vs spin. But it's likely to have 3 options 1) leave with May's deal, 2) leave with no deal, 3) remain. Which is likely to split leave voters, but remain voters will still have the same option, so remain would win by virtue of the way that question would be set alone.

I'd prefer us just to go through with what's agreed and just get to the end of this so we can move forward.

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houston4044
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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby houston4044 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:34 pm

Methuen wrote:Leave, and negotiate a trade arrangement over the next few years. But for God's sake don't send political pole climbers. Conscript some CEOs, QCs, M&A people.


Eh? We sent civil servants and Government lawyers to do the actual negotiating, the likes of Raab and Davis would just direct them as to what to aim for. There was even the mini scandal where it turned out Davis turned up for the first 3 hours of a 3 day summit and then went home for the rest :lol:

Metalchemyst wrote:It was right to have a referendum given how much the EEC/EC/EU has changed since the last vote.


I think it was a good idea but called for the wrong reasons. All this mess because a PM wanted to silence a wing of his party.

Black Wizard wrote:I am more opposed to another General Election. The country doesn't need more upheaval and Labour won't be able to do a better job. I am unconvinced about a second referendum, but not completely opposed to one.


With such a low bar you'd hope someone could

I find it a bit of a con concerning polls though, when polls suggesting a shift towards a 2nd ref or remain has a 10-15% difference in it's favour it's discarded or ignored. Yesterday's polling that UKIP has jumped an almighty 3% is suddenly seen as a huge swing :rolleyes:

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Tankplanker » Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:34 pm

jwh20 wrote:I don't particularly think another referendum is undemocratic, given that we now have reality vs spin. But it's likely to have 3 options 1) leave with May's deal, 2) leave with no deal, 3) remain. Which is likely to split leave voters, but remain voters will still have the same option, so remain would win by virtue of the way that question would be set alone.
I'd rather have two questions, first one just simple leave or remain. Second question, if we do leave should we go for May's deal, No Deal, or Wait and renegotiate. That way you don't split the leave vote, and you also capture what the remainers would prefer if leave is still the majority.

The problem with not having a referendum is that the last time we voted on what sort of deal we wanted, at the last general election, the Tories "won" that vote but have failed to deliver on any of their red lines they promised in their manifesto. So we need a new vote because they have been unable to deliver on what they were elected on. If what they promised isn't possible, then remain has to go back on the table. With a 48/52 split enough people will have changed their mind if we can't get an equitable divorce settlement that we were promised both during the referendum and at the general election from the EU to change their vote.

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby houston4044 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:06 pm

jwh20 wrote:I still need to read through the deal agreed by May, just not had the chance.

I voted remain, but am conscious of the reasons people want to leave.

People can say "I know what I voted for" as much as they like, but no one could predict the deal May could bring, so that's a load of crud. It should have been more clearly defined BEFORE the vote, but what's done is done.

48/52 is reasonably close. Out but with close ties seems the best option - unfortunately it is not going to satisfy anyone at all. Again not read it through, but that seems to be what has been agreed from the news.

I don't particularly think another referendum is undemocratic, given that we now have reality vs spin. But it's likely to have 3 options 1) leave with May's deal, 2) leave with no deal, 3) remain. Which is likely to split leave voters, but remain voters will still have the same option, so remain would win by virtue of the way that question would be set alone.

I'd prefer us just to go through with what's agreed and just get to the end of this so we can move forward.


Think the best analogy I've read to sum up the situation has to be it's like pre-ordering a game, they promise all the bells and whistles as you chuck your money at it but the finished product often falls below expectation and you want a refund.

Tankplanker wrote:I'd rather have two questions, first one just simple leave or remain. Second question, if we do leave should we go for May's deal, No Deal, or Wait and renegotiate. That way you don't split the leave vote, and you also capture what the remainers would prefer if leave is still the majority.

The problem with not having a referendum is that the last time we voted on what sort of deal we wanted, at the last general election, the Tories "won" that vote but have failed to deliver on any of their red lines they promised in their manifesto. So we need a new vote because they have been unable to deliver on what they were elected on. If what they promised isn't possible, then remain has to go back on the table. With a 48/52 split enough people will have changed their mind if we can't get an equitable divorce settlement that we were promised both during the referendum and at the general election from the EU to change their vote.


Only tweak I'd add to that ballot would be preferential voting, if after the first remain vs leave question everyone gets to vote again on the second question of Deal, No Deal etc. Making it a simple Remain, Leave with deal or leave no deal would be unfair and undemocratic.

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Metalchemyst » Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:14 pm

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/t ... heres-why/

" . . . When designing a survey at YouGov, we never offer a three-part scale in answer to a question as the middle one almost always wins. The attraction of the half-way compromise option is so magnetic that respondents who are even slightly unsure are drawn to its safety. For the majority of people that either don’t really know or don’t really care, the middle one seems like the one to choose. So instead we typically force a choice by offering a four-part scale or a binary alternative.

. . . The only sort of second referendum that would realistically be considered acceptable would be two stage, with Remain, Leave-with-no-deal, and May’s compromise as the three options followed by an immediate runoff of the final two.

As soon as you rebranded the middle option, as you would in a campaign, to something other than ‘Theresa May’s deal’ (how about ‘Soft Brexit’? or ‘Compromise deal’?), the magnetic pull of the middle way would kick in. Many of the voters currently choosing ‘don’t know’ (42 per cent in the most recent poll over the weekend) would come on board, as well as a chunk of the current ‘anti’s whose view is mainly about another referendum.

A positive campaign based around the need for a very British compromise I think might even lead to victory for this option in the first round. But even if it didn’t, the overwhelming majority of supporters of each of the other options would revert to the middle option as their number two choice, so it would surely win in the second round. The chances of either reversing Brexit or leaving with no deal scoring 50 per cent on the first round are very small – they scored 28 per cent and 19 per cent in a YouGov survey last week.

So we are in the weird situation when the Prime Minister is finally fulfilling the compromise role that voters had initially hoped of her. But through a combination of her own shortcomings and the relentless attacks of scorched earth Leave and Remain blocs it appears from opinion polls to be more unpopular than it is. Don’t be deceived. The numbers are on her side."
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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby houston4044 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:20 am

Metalchemyst wrote:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/theresa-mays-deal-would-win-a-second-referendum-heres-why/

Don’t be deceived. The numbers are on her side."


After reading through it did notice 2 things about it though

- They neglect to mention the "status quo effect" (I forget the proper term for it) in that when given a choice people will invariably pick the same over something different; which in this case would be remain.

- May's deal is treated as a neutral middle ground and that's how people are supposedly going to view it. Given a fair chunk of people won't even read it and more will only learn of it through what others on the news are saying about it then they'll probably be turned off of it since everyone is attacking it "for whatever reason"

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Metalchemyst » Sun Nov 25, 2018 11:21 pm

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby slayerslays » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:33 pm

I am now totally convinced that everything Theresa May is doing is being done out of self-interest. She left it late to say she was a Remainer under Cameron because she was waiting to see which way the wind blows. She is a career politician and will do ANYTHING to stay in power and appease EVERYONE. She undermined David Davis by using Olly Robbins - her pet Remainer and he resigned.
I think we should leave completely and utterly with no deal and re-negotiate with the EU from OUTSIDE of the EU....The EU unelected bureaucrats have proved themselves intransigent time and time again.
The UK has not benefited from being in the EU- they might have given us some money back but THEY tell US how to spend it and we are net donators to an organisation that has never had a budget ratified. There is massive fraud going on in Romania for a start that I actually know of...the final crunch came for me when I heard that the EU had given Turkey (not even in the EU ffcol) a loan to open a Ford Transit plant and then OUR one in Southampton closed with the loss of 600 jobs....

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Gandalf the Red
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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Gandalf the Red » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:19 pm

houston4044 wrote:
Bizza wrote:David Cameron should be fucking lynched for unleashing this shitpocalypse on the country.


There's a hella long list of MP's who deserve a similar fate over their complicity in this on both sides of the dispatch box.


Mostly on the Labour side I'm afraid. Most of them have gone as well.

If we would have had a referendum on many of the terms that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown signed up to, then we wouldn't have been in the mess that people started to say enough is enough. They would have gone much further if they could have done. Don't forget they wanted to sign up to the failing Euro and we would be bailing out Greece, Spain, Italy, etc. forever. They also wanted Schengen.

It's also worth pointing out that ALL the major parties had a Referendum Bill in their 2015 Manifesto. Not just the Tories.
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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Metalchemyst » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:35 pm

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/a-letter ... am-gudgin/

Graham Gudgin describes his experience of a remainer-dominated Brexit rally in affluent South Cambridgeshire

"Dear Remainers,

I met hundreds of you at an open meeting on Brexit held recently by South Cambridgeshire’s formidable pro-remain MP Heidi Allen. . .

Talking to some of you after the meeting I was struck by how little you know about the EU. Few of you can name a single EU Commissioner or know who your MEP is. Nor are you aware that EU legislation is initiated by the unelected Commission and not by the EU parliament. Such details do not concern you because you see your ideals as much loftier than mere administration. What concerns you is being good, open and cosmopolitan, and feeling good about yourself and your country.

. . . I was too polite to point out that her earlier claim that the Good Friday Agreement mandated no hard border in Ireland was also inaccurate. As a former special advisor to the First Minister in Northern Ireland I knew that the GFA included no mention of borders but I doubted she would have much interest in this level of precision.

. . . My leaver friends are compassionate and outward-looking people, fond of Europe and its wonderful cultures, but critical of the ambitions of a weakly democratic and economically under-performing EU. Yet, none of this would have had any impact on you remainers. You are totally assured of your correctness and you all went home happy, your progressive views on Brexit having been fully vindicated."
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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Gandalf the Red » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:14 pm

I don't think you get one MEP. You have several.

I know the names of three of mine. Stephen Wolfe, Theresa Griffin and Bungle AKA Paul Nuttall. I've never seen them in the same room, have you? :lol:
“He likes having the ball, playing football, passes. It’s like an orchestra. But it’s a silent song. But I like heavy metal more. I always want it loud.” - Jürgen Klopp

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby eyesore » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:05 am

Metalchemyst wrote: Nor are you aware that EU legislation is initiated by the unelected Commission and not by the EU parliament.

so what? for the purpose of this argument, the commission is ONLY responsible for initiating the legislative process. that's it. the passing of the laws is still in the hands of the parliament. and yes, its members are appointed, but they are appointed by democratically elected members of another EU institution - European Council (heads of state or government) and confirmed by European Parliament, so it's not that they don't have a democratic legitimacy.
There it goes - your argument down the toilet.
What also vexes me is that the British raise this argument, but they're the ones with the MOST UNDEMOCRATIC democracy in the EU, hell, even Putler's Russia is more democratic. We're stuck in the 19th century with our shitty first past the post system which secures the tyranny of minority in Parliament. So sort your shit out pot, before you start calling the kettle black.

Don't forget they wanted to sign up to the failing Euro

and where's your pound now?
10 years ago it was 2 dollars to a pound. when i went to the states in 2015 and 16 it was 1.6. Went again in Sep and it was 1.3 (it's actually below 1.3 now) ONLY BECAUSE OF the referendum and it WILL get much worse which means we're that much poorer compared to the rest of the world. A staggering drop in value of everything including our houses and renumerations. And it's only the referendum that's done that. Wait and see what happens after Brexit. I don't know about you but I like my holidays abroad whether it's a festival or visiting family or sightseeing. Whatever the reason - i have to fork out way way more than before. And what about thousands of British OAPS living abroad, collecting their pension in pounds and having it converted into whatever currency. Their pension is worth pennies now.
I am changing my prediction from £1=1e after Brexit to £1=$1.
Surely, we dont go abroad every week or month even so paying a bit extra every now and again should not strain our home budget too greatly but it's not even about that. It's about all the imported products that will cost dearer and dearer cause at some point importers will have to increase their prices. We're not the country of exporters and will never be so it's not like our exports can balance out the books. It's a loose-loose situation.
Schengen you say? What's bigger hinderance to trade than NOT being in Schengen? We've been loosing out for 2,5 decades in GDP growth exactly because of not being part of it. Again - after Brexit it will only get worse.
There's also a question of global economy and politics. Brexiteers cant see beyond the tip of their nose. Unelected commissioners is their biggest problem. A few days ago I read an interesting article about how the trade/economy war will play out between major players like China, USA and EU in the coming decades and how UK will totally get fucked in the ass and how we will be a puppet and they will be the ones pulling the strings.
Politically, I cant get rid of an impression that Brexiteers are secret soviet agents or at least Putler's minions. Putler is fucking sitting on his fucking throne and fucking laughing as he watches EU's bits fall off. He doesn't have to divide and conquer. We are dividing ourselves, once we're divided, then he'll conquer. If you want more novichok on British Isles, vote Brexit!
In conclusion - if you care about your and your family's future - get the hell out of this country before it's too late. Abandon this sinking ship.
Rant over. ;)
Last edited by eyesore on Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:36 am, edited 10 times in total.

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby eyesore » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:08 am

-

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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Metalchemyst » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:51 pm

eyesore wrote:For the purpose of this argument, the commission is ONLY responsible for initiating the legislative process. that's it. the passing of the laws is still in the hands of the parliament. and yes, its members are appointed, but they are appointed by democratically elected members of another EU institution - European Council (heads of state or government) and confirmed by European Parliament, so it's not that they don't have a democratic legitimacy. There it goes - your argument down the toilet.

What also vexes me is that the British raise this argument, but they're the ones with the MOST UNDEMOCRATIC democracy in the EU, hell, even Putler's Russia is more democratic. We're stuck in the 19th century with our shitty first past the post system which secures the tyranny of minority in Parliament. So sort your shit out pot, before you start calling the kettle black.
I have always complained about Britain's undemocratic system since I started voting, but being in the EU makes things worse, creating more distance between the voter and the legislation as you describe.

and where's your pound now? . .
The EU is not the cause of Britain's economic problems but it will not be the cure either. I blame our own politicians and voters - not enough long term investment, excessive borrowing and the whole consumer culture. I was never a 'hard Brexiteer' but having full control of immigration is essential for preserving both environment and national identity. If living standards fall back to 1990 levels then so be it. Nobody was starving then.

Politically, I cant get rid of an impression that Brexiteers are secret soviet agents or at least Putler's minions. Putler is fucking sitting on his fucking throne and fucking laughing as he watches EU's bits fall off. He doesn't have to divide and conquer. We are dividing ourselves, once we're divided, then he'll conquer. If you want more novichok on British Isles, vote Brexit! In conclusion - if you care about your and your family's future - get the hell out of this country before it's too late. Abandon this sinking ship.
Russia's economy is not strong and Putin makes little conquests to distract his people from that. It is a big myth that the EU deters Russian aggression - it is obviously NATO that does that. Putin might laugh at European countries wasting time and money on a Euro force - that is pointless division.
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Re: What should happen with Brexit?

Postby Gandalf the Red » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:31 pm

eyesore wrote:
Don't forget they wanted to sign up to the failing Euro

and where's your pound now?
10 years ago it was 2 dollars to a pound. when i went to the states in 2015 and 16 it was 1.6. Went again in Sep and it was 1.3 (it's actually below 1.3 now) ONLY BECAUSE OF the referendum and it WILL get much worse which means we're that much poorer compared to the rest of the world. A staggering drop in value of everything including our houses and renumerations. And it's only the referendum that's done that. Wait and see what happens after Brexit. I don't know about you but I like my holidays abroad whether it's a festival or visiting family or sightseeing. Whatever the reason - i have to fork out way way more than before. And what about thousands of British OAPS living abroad, collecting their pension in pounds and having it converted into whatever currency. Their pension is worth pennies now.
I am changing my prediction from £1=1e after Brexit to £1=$1.
Surely, we dont go abroad every week or month even so paying a bit extra every now and again should not strain our home budget too greatly but it's not even about that. It's about all the imported products that will cost dearer and dearer cause at some point importers will have to increase their prices. We're not the country of exporters and will never be so it's not like our exports can balance out the books. It's a loose-loose situation.
Schengen you say? What's bigger hinderance to trade than NOT being in Schengen? We've been loosing out for 2,5 decades in GDP growth exactly because of not being part of it. Again - after Brexit it will only get worse.
There's also a question of global economy and politics. Brexiteers cant see beyond the tip of their nose. Unelected commissioners is their biggest problem. A few days ago I read an interesting article about how the trade/economy war will play out between major players like China, USA and EU in the coming decades and how UK will totally get fucked in the ass and how we will be a puppet and they will be the ones pulling the strings.
Politically, I cant get rid of an impression that Brexiteers are secret soviet agents or at least Putler's minions. Putler is fucking sitting on his fucking throne and fucking laughing as he watches EU's bits fall off. He doesn't have to divide and conquer. We are dividing ourselves, once we're divided, then he'll conquer. If you want more novichok on British Isles, vote Brexit!
In conclusion - if you care about your and your family's future - get the hell out of this country before it's too late. Abandon this sinking ship.
Rant over. ;)


Bye then!

Our economy was screwed by having to bail out the Euro which we weren't even part of. If you can't see that you must be blind. We paid billions to Ireland just for starters. What thanks did we get? An even bigger bill.

As for Schengen. It may have escaped your notice that all those illegal immigrants that Frau Merkel let in want to come to the UK. Why do you think they are all camped in France? Is that because Europe is so wonderful?

Imagine if they could just walk over the border...


Besides I think people have been ignoring current events in France. Yep. That seems like a stable country. Similar scenes in Germany, and Poland, etc.. Europe is failing and soon to break up. Open your eyes and get out before it's too late.
“He likes having the ball, playing football, passes. It’s like an orchestra. But it’s a silent song. But I like heavy metal more. I always want it loud.” - Jürgen Klopp