The (speculative) Weather Thread

August 10-13, Catton Park, Walton on Trent, Derbyshire
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Gandalf the Red
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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby Gandalf the Red » Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:51 pm

florencethemachine wrote:
We are usually pretty lucky with weather I think. Last time it for really wet was 2010


2014 was pretty bad. Got a text halfway through Amon Amarth letting me know that my tent had collapsed.


Nah. There was a bit of rain in the afternoon (during Biohazard ISTR) and then it was a bit windy later on. Can't blame the weather for shoddy tent putting up. :P

That day it was boiling hot mostly as that's when I was feeling ill during Saxon and went for a lie down when Amon Amarth was on.
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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby i0th » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:38 am

Was raining that morning for Arthemis and ReVamp, then got quite windy, they took down the big kite-looking shelters near the Sophie stage.
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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby Slev » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:01 pm

Ahh, 2010, AKA, Mudstock.

Yeah, let's not have that again.

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby bloodfiend » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:23 pm

2014 wasn't that bad, just Sunday was rainy for most of the day, after 2 days of good weather.

2010 and 2007 were far worse.

Neither even come close to Wacken 2005 though, a complete swamp.

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby WorMzy » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:28 pm

I think the worst weather I experienced at Bloodstock was the Thursday afternoon at BOA08. Shortly after I got my tent up, the heavens opened and poured for about 20 minutes.

The only reason I remember that is because that was the odd year where Midgard was deemed unsufficient, and a mini-campsite was made along the edge of the main arena, where the Sophie Tent lives nowadays. The rain came during the IRC/forum meet in the [s]Scuzz[/s] Lava? tent, so I managed to stay dry. :D

I managed to miss 2010 because of money woes (I had none), and I can't remember 2014 being too bad.. I seem to remember people saying 2013 was wet, but I skipped that one due to the poor lineup (and money).
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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby i0th » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:29 pm

Oh aye 2014 wasn't that bad, just a bit wet early and the wind was annoying. Wacken 2005 was horrific, that was the year when they released the Armageddon over Wacken DVD where it normaly says " Rain or Shine" they crossed out the or shine bit. Mrs went into Wacken village to buy a pear of wellies as she'd only brought some Converse, I was fine in my New Rocks :lol:
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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby VizardAmata » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:38 pm

2013 was pretty bad, my shitty Argos tent flooded. :lol:

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby VizardAmata » Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:46 pm

Speaking of, Metcheck currently showing rain the whole weekend. But I put no faith in such a long range forecast.

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby Black Wizard » Sat Jul 22, 2017 7:21 pm

You're right not to. Any forecast more than ten days is bullshit.

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby n1489 » Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:00 pm

Black Wizard wrote:You're right not to. Any forecast more than ten days is bullshit.

Unless it's high pressure and really settled anything beyond 48 hours is pretty much guesswork. I'd have a look the weekend before but still take it with a pinch of salt

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby Black Wizard » Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:02 pm

It's more than guesswork.

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby n1489 » Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:20 am

Fair enough - it's more than guesswork but it's also often not very accurate. There's just too many factors involved, look at the difference predictions from different forecasters. I work outdoors and have learnt not to put too much faith in anything beyond 48 hours. I remember one Bloodstock (can't remember which year) when rain was forecast for the whole weekend right up until a day or so before. On the Thursday the orecast suddenly changed to mainly sunny and we hardly got a drop of rain. On the downside I refused to believe the forecast in 2014 out of pure optimism and unfortunately the sunday was forecast correctly.

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby CharlesDexterWard » Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:02 am

When I worked in Scottish Resilience team at the Scottish Government we regularly dealt with the Met Office and the guys there were always clear that anything over 48 hours should be treated with caution.

A lot of the prediction is based on modelling and historical average but frankly I will see what the forecast is saying a day or two before BOA.
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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby Black Wizard » Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:15 am

In general any forecast should be treated with caution - all models are wrong. From 2-5 days the forecasts are fine, but they should be interpreted as a general picture. You certainly shouldn't take an hourly forecast beyond 2 days as a certainty, or even 6 hours in advance. Accuweather giving 90 day forecasts is a joke though.

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Re: The (speculative) Weather Thread

Postby Tet » Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:56 pm

CharlesDexterWard wrote:When I worked in Scottish Resilience team at the Scottish Government we regularly dealt with the Met Office and the guys there were always clear that anything over 48 hours should be treated with caution.

That's still mostly true, but things are improving, and at a faster rate than I expected. The Met Office publish accuracy figures showing how good their forecasts are. In relatively recent times, it used to be that 24 hours was pretty reliable, 48 hours was mostly reliable and 3 days was around 50/50. The last time I looked, that had improved and they thought they could do out to 5 days with 40%ish accuracy. They explicitly warn that anything beyond that is only useful for very vague general trends.
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