Vickie on the Jasta Show

[Gandalf the Red]

Wow.

[AnnihiSlateR]

You're doing it wrong.

[Kanwulf]

You're doing it wrong.

Forgive me senpai

[Danroush]

There's the concept of the "home advantage" due to a mix of reasons.

Mostly not, no. It largely comes down to a single reason: crowd pressure forcing the referee to make decisions favourable to the home side. The home advantage is real and measurable. But there have been numerous studies into why and the conclusions are surprising. By any measurement we can come up with, the home players don't play any better. The away players don't play any worse. The players tire at the same rate whether they're playing home or away. Pass completion, shot accuracy etc. are all unaffected. The only statisticaly significant change is the way the referee's decisions go.

Source: I've made my living by betting on football for most of the last decade. It's important to know this sort of stuff.

Is there any of those stats that you're free to link? I'm quite curious. Also you mention no difference in play from the statistics you measured, I'm guessing there is a difference in results but you're putting that down purely to refereeing as opposed to anything else. Also do you just focus on the premier league or also include teams further down?

[kanet666]

There's the concept of the "home advantage" due to a mix of reasons.

Mostly not, no. It largely comes down to a single reason: crowd pressure forcing the referee to make decisions favourable to the home side. The home advantage is real and measurable. But there have been numerous studies into why and the conclusions are surprising. By any measurement we can come up with, the home players don't play any better. The away players don't play any worse. The players tire at the same rate whether they're playing home or away. Pass completion, shot accuracy etc. are all unaffected. The only statisticaly significant change is the way the referee's decisions go.

Source: I've made my living by betting on football for most of the last decade. It's important to know this sort of stuff.

Is there any of those stats that you're free to link? I'm quite curious. Also you mention no difference in play from the statistics you measured, I'm guessing there is a difference in results but you're putting that down purely to refereeing as opposed to anything else. Also do you just focus on the premier league or also include teams further down?

If ref pressure is the measure of home advantage, then we have a home disadvantage at Ewood given the amount of dodgy penalties we've had against us recently.

[Danroush]

I was pretty tempted to say something similar about forest, maybe not so much this season but the one before last (and last to a lesser extent) that definitely got much worse decisions at home, but I have a feeling in terms of a proper argument I'd immediately get ruled out due to obvious personal bias

[Tet]

Is there any of those stats that you're free to link? I'm quite curious. Also you mention no difference in play from the statistics you measured, I'm guessing there is a difference in results but you're putting that down purely to refereeing as opposed to anything else. Also do you just focus on the premier league or also include teams further down?

I don't have the references to hand and it was a few years ago I was looking, but try searching the academic paper repositories for things relating to home advantage. For example: http://www.citeulike.org/search/all?q=%22home+advantage%22

From memory, the home advantage analysis was largely limited to the bigger leagues. But for betting? We'll bet on *anything*. Romanian Women's 2nd Division? Yep, we've got it covered. South Korean Reserve games? Yep, those too. Amateur games in the West Riding County Cup, with 17 fans and 3 dogs watching? Sure. If there's money to be made, why not?

[Moonburp]

Bloodstock in 'forgetting its roots' shocker.

Nothing really new here.