Powerslave wrote:just to throw some numbers out there, a quick Google suggests there are 55 million adults in the UK. It's just shy of 29 weeks to Bloodstock, which means that we would need to vaccinate around 1.9 million people per week to have given everyone at least one dose by then. we're currently well over that figure.
so assuming that a) we can maintain the current numbers and b) nothing unforseen happens regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine, i really don't think it's unrealistic to think it could happen.
Just to come back from that, and likely to be called the speaker of doom, the first vaccination group is largely people in care homes. I would potentially argue that these people are relatively easy to physically vaccinate. If you're asking a bunch of people to take time off work to come and get vaccinated, that's one blocker that could prevent an easy rollout. That is, I can see the vaccination rate gradually lessen over time as people become physically harder to reach. That is, right now all you need is a couple of people rocking up to an old folks home in a rented transit van full of the good stuff, crack on with the day and woohoo you're done before nap time. Setting that same shizz up in a city centre and trying to get people to turn out when battling against a working day or even covid-infested public transport... well... personally I think things will just get a touch more difficult.
The second thing is that the vaccine reduces the chance of you getting sick. However, it is totally unknown if it stops the spread of Covid 19 and questions are raised if the vaccine is effective against the South African strain - some reports say yes, others say no or not enough evidence etc. So really, it's still a wait and see game.
Either way, the guy above me is right. It's really going to be a case of wait until the end of May and see if Bloodstock makes a decision and then how ticket holders will respond in relation to that announcement. I personally think that the lack of band announcements is a bit of a teller that Bloodstock is at least playing it safe or already considering 2021 a miss but keeping things alive just in case. And rightly so, don't want to be paying band deposits for a festival that's currently 50/50.
Because you have to remember on top of that we have Brexit and (without getting political), currently a lot of barriers for touring musicians to come and play from the EU in terms of visas, carnets, etc. So there is all that on top to wade through and guarantee someone's costs will go up as a result of it.
On the whole, the odds are stacked against Bloodstock IMO and even if it's a go, we really don't know what the world will look like in June or July, the weeks preceding Bloodstock. Of course I hope it happens, but I also hope it happens in a scenario where we can all be safe. And not pseudo-safe, IMO socially distanced rope lines for the bar will get royally jousted by the Friday!